Las operaciones comerciales basadas en la diferencia de las tasas de interés continúan

LONDRES – El Banco de Pagos Internacionales informó recientemente que todos los días se realizan operaciones por 4 billones de dólares en los mercados de divisas, lo que representa un aumento respecto de los 3,3 billones de dólares de 2007. No obstante, si bien el volumen de las operaciones cambiarias siempre acapara los encabezados de los diarios, la manera en que se llevan a cabo también es importante –y esto ha evolucionado enormemente con los años.

Cualquier libro de introducción a las finanzas le dirá que los inversionistas se preocupan por la rentabilidad global de su cartera, no sólo de sus activos individuales. Los inversionistas establecen precios de activos que en cierta medida no están correlacionados, o incluso, que están correlacionados negativamente con los rendimientos del mercado en su conjunto. La posesión de esos activos tiende a estabilizar los rendimientos globales.

Lo anterior funciona en la teoría. Sin embargo, ¿de dónde vienen esos activos? Algunos precios de las acciones normalmente no están correlacionados con el mercado. Sin embargo, los precios de las acciones tienden a moverse más estrechamente en un periodo de dislocación del mercado. Entonces, es probable que la relación funcione mal en el peor momento: justo cuando un fondo de cobertura sería más útil, el activo más confiable se convierte en un riesgo.

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