Carry trade pokračuje

LONDÝN – Banka pro mezinárodní platby nedávno uvedla, že na globálních devizových trzích se denně zobchodují čtyři biliony dolarů, přičemž v roce 2007 to ještě byly 3,3 biliony. Avšak zatímco velikost devizového trhu se vždycky vyšvihne na titulní stránky novin, záleží také na způsobu, jímž se s měnami obchoduje – a ten se během let mohutně vyvíjel.

Každá učebnice finančnictví pro začátečníky vám řekne, že investoři se starají o výnosy celého svého portfolia, ne jen jeho jednotlivých aktiv. Investoři si cení aktiv, která s výnosy trhu jako celku relativně málo korelují anebo s nimi v ještě lepším případě korelují negativně. Držení takových aktiv obvykle stabilizuje celkové výnosy.

Teoreticky to zní pěkně, ale kde se taková aktiva berou? Ceny některých akcií jsou za normálních okolností v relativně slabé souvztažnosti k trhu. Jenže ve chvílích vyšinutí trhu mají ceny akcií tendenci pohybovat se v mnohem těsnější jednotě. Takže tento vztah má sklon pokazit se v nejhorší možnou dobu: právě když by určitá pojistka byla nejužitečnější, aktivum, na něž jste spoléhali, se mění v riziko.

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