عودة تجارة الحَمل

لندن ـ ذكر بنك التسويات الدولية مؤخراً أن أربعة تريليونات من الدولارات يتم تداولها يومياً في أسواق صرف العملة الأجنبية، بعد أن كان الرقم 3,3 تريليون دولار في عام 2007. ولكن في حين تستولي مثل هذه الأرقام عن حجم التجارة في أسواق صرف العملة الأجنبية العناوين الرئيسية دوماً، فإن الطريقة التي تتم بها المتاجرة في العملات تشكل أيضاً أهمية واضحة ـ ولقد تطورت هذه الطريقة بقوة على مر السنين.

والواقع أن أي كتاب مدرسي أولي يتحدث عن التمويل وتدبير الموارد المالية سوف ينبئك بأن المستثمر يهتم بعائدات محافظه الاستثمارية الإجمالية، وليس فقط بأصولها الفردية. ويُقَدِّر المستثمرون عموماً الأصول غير المترابطة نسبياً، أو حتى الأصول المرتبطة سلباً بعائدات السوق ككل. إذ يميل امتلاك مثل هذه الأصول إلى تثبيت استقرار العائدات الكلية.

وهو كلام جميل من الناحية النظرية، ولكن من أين تأتي مثل هذه الأصول؟ إن أسعار بعض الأسهم لا تترابط نسبياً مع السوق بطبيعتها. ولكن أسعار الأسهم تميل إلى التحرك الجماعي بمستويات متقاربة في الأوقات التي تمر فيها السوق باضطرابات. وهذا يعني أن العلاقة من الممكن أن تذهب في الاتجاه الخطأ في أسوأ وقت ممكن: فعندما يكون أحد أصول التحوط مفيداً إلى أقصى حد، فإن الأصل الذي كنت تعتمد عليه يتحول إلى مجازفة.

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