El camino de Birmania pasa por Beijing

NUEVA YORK – Tres hechos concretos están definiendo los límites de las conversaciones que el negociador Ibrahim Gambari de las Naciones Unidas está llevando a cabo en sus visitas a los generales que gobiernan Birmania y a la líder opositora detenida en su hogar, Aung San Suu Kyi. En primer lugar, a pesar del heroico liderazgo de los monjes budistas y la comunidad pro-democracia, cerca de 50 años de desgobierno militar y tácticas del terror han agotado al pueblo birmano, al que probablemente le sea difícil mantener su actitud desafiante ante el régimen si no se ven divisiones claras entre los generales gobernantes o deserciones generalizadas entre los soldados comunes.

En segundo lugar, los generales birmanos saben que enfrentan un difícil dilema: mantener el poder o arriesgarse a ir a prisión, al exilio o incluso morir. A sus ojos, esto les deja prácticamente ninguna opción excepto aferrarse al poder a toda costa.

Finalmente, en tanto China dé apoyo político, financiero y militar a los gobernantes birmanos, es casi imposible que ocurra un cambio significativo. Hasta que China decida que en Birmania le conviene más un gobierno con mayor legitimidad que el actual e incompetente régimen militar, es poco lo que puede ocurrir.

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