Дорога Бирмы идет через Пекин

НЬЮ-ЙОРК - Три неопровержимых факта устанавливают границы для переговоров, которые ведет посредник ООН Ибрагим Гамбари, курсируя между правящими генералами Бирмы и задержанным лидером оппозиции Аунг Сан Суу Кий. Во-первых, несмотря на героическое руководство Буддистского духовенства и сообщества сторонников демократии, почти 50 лет плохого правления военных и террористической тактики утомили людей Бирмы, которым скорее всего будет трудно поддерживать свое сопротивление без очевидных расколов среди правящих генералов или широко распространенного дезертирства среди простых солдат.

Во-вторых, генералы Бирмы знают, что им предстоит сделать непреклонный выбор: или сохранить власть, или рисковать заключением, изгнанием и возможной смертью. В их глазах это фактически не оставляет им никакого выбора, кроме как держаться за власть любой ценой.

Наконец, пока Китай оказывает политическую, финансовую и военную поддержку правителям Бирмы, какие-либо значительные изменения практически невозможны. До тех пор, пока Китай не решит, что более законное правительство в Бирме принесет ему больше пользы, чем сегодняшний некомпетентный военный режим, мало что может произойти.

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