La solution au problème birman passe par Pékin

NEW YORK – Trois points vont délimiter les négociations entreprises par l’émissaire des Nations Unies, Ibrahim Gambari, qui fait la navette entre les généraux au pouvoir en Birmanie et Aung Suu Kyi, leader de l’opposition maintenue en détention. Tout d’abord, en dépit de la conduite héroïque du clergé bouddhiste et du mouvement pro-démocrate, le peuple birman, épuisé par près de 50 années de terreur et de pouvoir militaire, aura du mal à poursuivre ses protestations sans une division majeure des généraux ou sans un grand mouvement de désertions chez les simples soldats.

Ensuite, les généraux savent qu’il font face à un choix difficile : soit ils se maintiennent au pouvoir, soit ils risquent la prison, l’exil, voire la mort. À leurs yeux, cela ne leur laisse quasiment pas d’autre choix que de se maintenir au pouvoir à tout prix.

Enfin, tant que la Chine soutiendra politiquement, financièrement et militairement les autorités birmanes, il sera quasiment impossible de voir le moindre changement se produire. Tant que la Chine n’aura pas décidé qu’elle a plus à gagner avec un gouvernement légitime en Birmanie qu’avec la junte incompétente actuellement au pouvoir, peu de choses risquent de changer.

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