缅甸的变革之路经过北京

纽约—在联合国谈判专家Ibrahim Gambari斡旋于统治缅甸的将军们和被关押的在野党领袖昂山素季之间时,有三个关键性的事实确定了他的谈判边界。首先,尽管有僧人和亲民主社团身先士卒的英勇行为,但近50年来的军政府暴政和恐怖政策已使缅甸人民深受其害。他们很可能会发现要继续对现政权的挑战而又不引起将军统治阶层内部的明显裂隙或普通士兵的广泛逃弃现象是很困难的。

其次,缅甸的将军们明白他们面临着无法回避的选择:要么继续掌权,要么就得面对入狱、流放甚至可能是死刑的风险。在他们看来,这实际上就是除了不惜一切代价继续把持大权之外别无选择的境地。

最后,只要中国继续为缅甸的统治者提供政治、财政和军事支持,缅甸就不可能发生真正有意义的变化。在中国认识到它从一个合法的缅甸政府那里获得的利益要比从一个无能的军事政权那里获得的更多之前,什么都不会发生。

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