Pedro Molina

前路崎岖

坎布里奇——如果股市和利差可信的话,美国经济已经见底,下面可能会缓慢复苏。但世界经济的麻烦却刚刚开始。如果全球化得不到必要的修复,穷国和富国未来的经济前景都不容乐观。

最坏情况莫过于回到20世纪30年代,当时各国设立贸易壁垒,死守孤立主义,损害了所有人的利益。幸运的是,这在今天看来还很遥远。但次坏情况是想当然地认为只需轻微的修补就足以换回全球化的健康和持续。修复金融危机暴露出来的全球化漏洞需要不折不扣的努力和创造力。

先看好消息。全球危机解决对策或许并不完美,但也并不像人们害怕的那样争吵不休。20国集团未能就统一财政刺激或银行改革的具体步骤达成一致。但它们确实联手支持国际货币基金组织,为IMF提供额外的资源。尽管金融危机发生后世界各地冒出了大量保护主义举措,但其中绝大多数都不值得多虑。至少到目前为止,全球化还没有遭到致命的一击。

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