Le gambe rotte del commercio globale

NEW YORK – Il Doha Round, l’ultimo ciclo di negoziati commerciali multilaterali, è fallito a novembre del 2011, dopo dieci anni di trattative, malgrado i tentativi ufficiali fatti da numerosi Paesi, tra cui Regno Unito e Germania, e da quasi tutti i più importanti esperti in materia di commercio. Mentre i funzionari responsabili del settore commercio negli Stati Uniti e nell’Unione europea hanno dato alle eccessive richieste dei paesi in via di sviluppo del G22 la colpa del fallimento dei precedenti negoziati a Cancún nel 2003, si è ora generalmente concordi nell’affermare che questa volta sia colpa degli Usa, le cui richieste ingiustificate (e ostinate) hanno reso vane le trattative. E adesso?

Il mancato raggiungimento della liberalizzazione per il commercio multilaterale, con la fine del Doha Round, implica che il mondo ha perso i guadagni commerciali che avrebbe potuto ottenere da un trattato efficace. Ma non si tratta solo di questo: il fallimento del Doha fermerà praticamente la liberalizzazione del commercio multilaterale negli anni a venire.

Ovviamente, i negoziati commerciali multilaterali sono solo una delle tre gambe rotte su cui poggia l’Organizzazione mondiale del commercio (Wto). La rottura di quella gamba incide però negativamente sul funzionamento delle altre due: l’autorità normativa della Wto e il suo meccanismo di risoluzione delle controversie, il Dispute Settlement Mechanism (Dsm). Anche in questo caso i costi potrebbero essere ingenti.

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