Paul Lachine

El desafío del crecimiento en Brasil

SANTIAGO – “Brasil debe aumentar su crecimiento” ha pasado a ser prácticamente el lema de la presidenta brasileña, Dilma Rouseff. Con una economía casi estancada durante 2011 y la primera mitad de 2012, las palabras de Rouseff no sólo constituyen una necesidad política para ella, sino que también reflejan una preocupación nacional más amplia con el  poderío económico, como corresponde a un gran país cuyas aspiraciones son de nivel continental. Esto diferencia a Brasil del resto de la región –donde, de Argentina a Chile, de Ecuador a Venezuela– los políticos prefieren repartir la riqueza natural de cada nación que crear nuevas fuentes de prosperidad.

Durante los últimos diez años, el crecimiento económico de Brasil se ha debido en buena medida al boom de las materias primas, que ha beneficiado también a sus vecinos sudamericanos. Durante 2010, la economía brasileña creció al 7,5%, con políticas fiscales y monetarias muy expansivas que permitieron que el país superara rápidamente la crisis financiera mundial.

Por estos días, políticas de la misma índole de nuevo están logrando su objetivo: el crecimiento ha aumentado en los últimos meses del 2012 y se espera que llegue a más del 4% en el 2013. Sin embargo, al margen de estos altibajos de corto plazo ¿es posible que Brasil alcance un crecimiento sostenido? Y, de ser así, ¿qué o quién impulsará dicho crecimiento?

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