Barrie Maguire

Das Schreckgespenst der Inflation

LONDON – Wie real ist die Inflationsgefahr für die Weltwirtschaft? Bei dieser Frage gehen die Meinungen zwischen konservativen Ökonomen und offiziellen Organisationen wie IWF und OECD auseinander.

IWF und OECD prognostizieren für die nächsten paar Jahre sehr niedrige Inflationsraten. Der ehemalige Chef der US-Federal Reserve, Alan Greenspan, hingegen warnt vor den Gefahren der Inflation. Auch auf einigen Anleihemärkten scheint man mit einer deutlich steigenden Inflation zu rechnen.

Für die Politik ist es von entscheidender Bedeutung, wer nun recht hat. Wenn die Rezession von der Inflation als unser Hauptproblem abgelöst ist, sollten die Staaten ihre Konjunkturprogramme so rasch wie möglich beenden (und damit Geld aus der Wirtschaft abziehen). Bleibt die Rezession weiterhin das Problem, sollten die Konjunkturprogramme fortgesetzt oder womöglich noch forciert werden.

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