Lo spauracchio dello stimolo fiscale

NEW YORK – Dopo il disastro economico del 2008-2009, la gente è comprensibilmente preoccupata per gli effetti devastanti di un’ulteriore crisi finanziaria. Ma la probabilità di un’altra crisi è alquanto remota, e il suo impatto negativo sarebbe questa volta di gran lunga inferiore, poiché non si profilano all’orizzonte massicce bolle azionarie o creditizie pronte a scoppiare da un momento all’altro.

Ciò non esime però esperti e media dal gonfiare tali timori, distraendo dai grossi sforzi fatti per superare una prolungata stagnazione in gran parte del mondo sviluppato, che trascinerà inevitabilmente verso il basso la ripresa economia di altre regioni, soprattutto nei Paesi in via di sviluppo.

Al momento, l’uomo nero sembra essere il debito pubblico. Si tratta perlopiù degli elevati livelli di debito sovrano raggiunti nei due versanti dell’Atlantico e in Giappone. Come ha dichiarato l’economista Martin Wolf, “La sfida fiscale è nel lungo periodo, non nell’immediato”. Allo stesso modo, anche se il Giappone registra il rapporto debito/Pil più alto tra i Paesi ricchi, tale situazione non rappresenta un problema serio poiché il debito è concentrato a livello domestico. I problemi debitori dell’Europa sono invece notoriamente riconducibili agli aspetti mal concepiti dell’integrazione europea.

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