Das Schreckgespenst fiskalpolitischer Anreize

NEW YORK: Nach dem wirtschaftlichen Desaster der Jahre 2008-2009 sind die Menschen verständlicherweise auf der Hut vor den Verheerungen, die eine weitere Finanzkrise anrichten könnte. Doch die Wahrscheinlichkeit einer weiteren Krise ist relativ gering, und ihre negativen Folgen wären diesmal deutlich weniger schlimm, da es keine riesigen Kredit- oder Vermögenspreisblasen mehr gibt, die platzen könnten.

Dies hat Kommentatoren und Medien nicht daran gehindert, diese Befürchtungen zu übertreiben – und hat von größeren Anstrengungen zur Bewältigung der anhaltenden Stagnation in großen Teilen der entwickelten Welt abgelenkt, was unweigerlich andernorts, und insbesondere in den Entwicklungsländern, zu einer Verlangsamung der wirtschaftlichen Erholung führen wird.

Das derzeit beliebteste Schreckgespenst ist die Verschuldung der öffentlichen Haushalte. Viel Aufhebens wird derzeit um das hohe Ausmaß der Staatsverschuldung auf beiden Seiten des Atlantiks und in Japan gemacht. Doch wie Wirtschaftskommentator Martin Wolf angemerkt hat, ist die „von den öffentlichen Haushalten ausgehende Herausforderung eine langfristige und keine unmittelbare.“ Gleichermaßen gilt, dass Japan zwar unter den reichen Ländern die höchste Schuldenquote aufweist, dies jedoch kein ernsthaftes Problem ist, da die Gläubiger in Japan selbst sitzen. Und was Europas Schuldenprobleme angeht, so ist inzwischen allgemein anerkannt, dass diese auf schlecht durchdachten Aspekten der europäischen Integration beruhen.

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