不明白历史的人

扭曲地看待今天的状况是应对未来挑战最糟糕的方式。像美国新保守主义的大名人波多雷茨在他的新书里把与国际恐怖主义的斗争描述为“第四次世界大战”,从许多方面来看都完全是错误的判断。

首先,第三次世界大战是在何时何地发生的?冷战,单从它从来没有变“热”来看,就完全与第一次或第二次世界大战等同而言。当然,与“世界大战”联系起来也许是为了制造一个“我们”与“他们”对抗的逻辑,但是这与原教旨伊斯兰主义带给我们的挑战的性质并不相吻合,尤其是考虑到穆斯林世界内部的复杂性以及多个派别的存在。事实上,当我们的思想变得好战时,我们就无法寻找到正确的答案。而正确的答案不但应该以安全为核心,同时也要考虑政治因素。

像通常所表现出的一样,人们说的话是非常重要的,因为它们会非常容易地变成反过来伤及那些不恰当地说这些话的人的武器。错误的类比已经把美国引向在伊拉克的灾难,这与布什政府的某些人辩解民主可以通过占领以前的独裁国家来在该国生根发芽而常常拿出来举例的二战后的德国或日本没有任何相似之处。

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