Черная дыра в ВВП Америки

КЕМБРИДЖ. Масштабный спад в экономике Америки продлится дольше и будет более разрушительным, чем предыдущие рецессии, поскольку им руководит беспрецедентный спад цен на жилье. Несмотря на то, что пакет стимулирующих фискальных мер, который недавно подписал президент Обама, окажет временную поддержку некоторой активности этим летом, общий прогноз о том, что устойчивое восстановление начнется во второй половине 2009 года, почти наверняка окажется чрезмерно оптимистичным.

Предыдущим рецессиям часто было присуще избыточное накопление товарных запасов и чрезмерное вложение капитала в производственное оборудование. Экономика могла восстановить свои позиции, поскольку с течением времени эти излишки поглощались, таким образом создавая возможности для новых инвестиций. Предыдущим восстановлениям также способствовали уменьшения процентных ставок центрального банка.

Однако в этот раз падение стоимости ценных бумаг и жилья поглотило более 12 триллионов долларов США от стоимости жилья в США - сумму, превышающую 75% ВВП. Предыдущий опыт реакций на падение цен на жильё показывает, что такое падение сократит потребительские расходы примерно на 500 миллиардов долларов США ежегодно, пока стоимость не восстановится. В то время как боле высокие нормы сбережения на жилье помогут восстановить его стоимость, этот процесс может продлиться более десятилетия при относительно высоких нормах сбережений, чтобы восстановить эти потери.

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