美国GDP“黑洞”

剑桥——当前美国所面临的经济衰退将比以往任何时期的破坏力都大,持续的时间也更长。原因是本次经济衰退的起因是由于房产资产大幅度意外缩水所造成的。虽然奥巴马总统在近期推出了经济刺激方案,美国经济也许会在今年夏天暂时有所好转,但如果认为09年第二季度经济将会持续好转的话,那就显得过于乐观了。

以往的经济危机是由于产能过剩及产业过度投资所造成的。产能过剩和过度投资会随着时间而被慢慢消化,经济也会随之复苏,新一轮的投资也会慢慢兴起。与此同时,中央银行下调利率的政策也会对复苏起到作用。

然而此次危机则不同,美国家庭在股市房市的资损失已经超过了12万亿美元,相当于GDP的3/4还多。在经济停止下滑之前,美国家庭每年将会减少大约5000亿美元的消费支出。随着家庭储蓄率的升高,如果要恢复到危机爆发之前的水平。至少还需要10年。

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