Die große Bankenreform

LONDON – Die aktuellen Debatten über die Bankenreform wird von zwei alternativen Optionen beherrscht: Auflösung oder Regulierung. Die Diskussion reicht zurück zu den frühen Tagen von US-Präsident Franklin D. Roosevelts „New Deal“, der Regulierer gegen die trust buster ins Feld schickte.

Im   Bankwesen trugen die trust buster mit dem Glass-Steagall Act von 1933, bei dem die Geschäftsbanken von den Investitionsbanken getrennt und Bankeinlagen garantiert wurden, den Sieg davon. Mit der sukzessiven Demontage von Glass-Steagall, die letztlich zur Auflösung des Gesetzes 1999 führte, triumphierten Banker über buster und Regulierer, ohne jedoch die Einlagenversicherung für die Geschäftsbanken aufgeben zu müssen. Es war hauptsächlich dieses größtenteils unregulierte System, das 2008 zusammenbrach und Schockwellen in die ganze Welt sandte.

Der Schlüssel für die Verhütung eines neuerlichen Bankencrashes liegt in der Lösung des Problems des subjektiven Risikos – der Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass ein Risikoträger, der gegen Verlust versichert ist, noch mehr Risiken eingeht. In den meisten Ländern werden Kunden von Banken, die Pleite gehen, von der Regierung entschädigt, nicht von der Bank. Zusätzlich fungiert die Zentralbank als letztinstanzlicher Kreditgeber für Geschäftsbanken, die zu groß sind, um in die Insolvenz zu gehen. Also können Banken durch die Einlagenversicherung und den Zugang zu den Mitteln der Zentralbank nach eigenem Gutdünken mit den Einlagen ihrer Kunden zocken; es sind, wie John Kay es nannte, „Banken mit angeschlossenem Kasino“.

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