Perché consolidare?

STANFORD – In tutto il mondo, l’acceso dibattito sul se, quando e quanto ridurre disavanzi colossali e un debito sovrano ai massimi livelli divide politici e opinione pubblica, dando luogo alla proliferazione di politiche di spesa, fiscali, monetarie e regolative diametralmente opposte. Consolidare (il bilancio) o non consolidare, questo è il dilemma.

La sinistra politica chiede un incremento della spesa pubblica, imposte più elevate per i contribuenti ad alto reddito, e di procrastinare il consolidamento fiscale. Paul Krugman, economista ed editorialista del New York Times, ad esempio, propone di rinviarlo di 10-15 anni. (C’è da dire che molte di queste persone si erano pronunciate, per motivi analoghi, contro le politiche disinflazionistiche, poi rivelatesi efficaci, della Federal Reserve all’inizio degli anni Ottanta). D’altro canto, la destra politica reclama una tempestiva riduzione del disavanzo mediante tagli alla spesa pubblica.

In Europa, i policymaker, tra cui la Banca centrale europea, invocano il consolidamento per i Paesi più indebitati, pur mostrandosi flessibili nelle trattative; sono gli elettori, però, a rifiutarlo, e il recente caso italiano ne è una riprova. Negli Stati Uniti, i repubblicani puntano a raggiungere il pareggio di bilancio nel giro di un decennio riformando la spesa pubblica per l’assistenza e il sistema tributario (con una riduzione delle esenzioni, delle detrazioni e dei crediti che fornisca le entrate necessarie a ridurre le aliquote delle imposte personali e un’aliquota aziendale che, fissata al 35%, è la più elevata tra i Paesi dell’OCSE).

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