Tim Brinton

La Guerre des Obligations

LONDRES – La Grèce ne va pas pouvoir honorer sa dette extérieure – c'est un secret de Polichinelle. La question est de savoir comment faire en sorte que personne ne comprenne vraiment que la Grèce est déjà en cessation de paiement.

Sur ce sujet, ce ne sont pas les plans d'experts qui manquent – entre autres, rachats d'obligations, échanges d'obligations, et création d'euro-obligations, une version européenne des obligations Brady émises par les pays d'Amérique Latine qui étaient en défaut dans les années 1980. Au final, ces manouvres frauduleuses reviennent à additionner des lots d'obligations pour tenter de résoudre la quadrature du cercle (vicieux) qui empêche la Grèce de rembourser sa dette, et de minimiser les pertes subies par ses créanciers – principalement les banques européennes.

Chaque semaine, une ubuesque coterie de banquiers européens et de Ministres des Finances se rend de capitale en capitale pour ergoter sur les cessations de paiement / plans de restructuration à adopter. Pendant ce temps, l'agonie de la Grèce se prolonge, et les “marchés” attendent le moment où ils pourront assaillir le Portugal, l'Irlande, l'Italie et l'Espagne.

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