La batalla por Baréin

MANAMA – El fervor por el cambio que inspiraron las resoluciones en Túnez y Egipto está ahora agitando a Baréin, pero el levantamiento en Manama difiere de las protestas en masa que derrocaron a gobernantes del África septentrional que llevaban mucho tiempo en el poder. De hecho, las líneas de fallas sectarias, junto con el completo vasallaje de las fuerzas de seguridad a la monarquía, reducen en gran medida la probabilidad de un cambio pacífico de régimen.

Mientras que Túnez y Egipto son países relativamente homogéneos –los musulmanes suníes constituyen más del 90 por ciento de sus habitantes–, los suníes de Baréin, incluidas la familia real y la minoría política y económica dominante, comprenden sólo una tercera parte, aproximadamente, de la población. El resto son chiíes. Cada uno de esos grupos está formulando peticiones diferentes, si no contradictorias.

Lo chiíes están centrados en las reformas políticas que reflejarían su condición mayoritaria. Sin embargo, los suníes agraviados quieren cambios socioeconómicos, como, por ejemplo, viviendas asequibles y, mientras que los egipcios de todas clases que protestaban encontraron un entendimiento común al insistir en que el Presidente Hosni Mubarak dimitiera, a los bareiníes les resultará casi imposible acordar una consigna común.

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