Битва за Бахрейн

МАНАМА. Жажда перемен, которая стала вдохновителем революций в Тунисе и Египте, сегодня раскачивает Бахрейн. Но восстание в Манаме отличается от массовых акций протеста, которые свергли давнишних правителей в Северной Африке. В действительности, сектантские линии разлома наряду с полной верностью монархии сил безопасности серьезно уменьшают вероятность мирной смены режима.

В то время как Египет и Тунис являются относительно однородными странами ‑ мусульмане-сунниты составляют более 90% их жителей ‑ сунниты Бахрейна, в том числе королевская семья, а также политическая и экономическая элиты страны, составляют только одну треть населения. Остальные – это шииты. Каждая из этих групп выдвигает разные, если не противоречивые требования друг к другу.

Шииты делают акцент на политические реформы, которые отразят их статус большинства. Оскорбленные сунниты, тем временем, хотят социально-экономических изменений, таких как доступное жилье. И, в то время как египетские протестующие всех типов нашли общий язык в совместном требовании отставки президента Хосни Мубарака, для Бахрейна будет почти невозможно найти согласие в боевом кличе.

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