La bataille pour Bahreïn

MANAMA – La ferveur de changement qui a inspiré les révolutions en Tunisie et en Égypte ébranle maintenant Bahreïn. Mais le soulèvement à Manama est différent des manifestations de masses qui ont renversé les dirigeants installés de longue date en Afrique du Nord. En effet, des clivages communautaires, ainsi que l’entière fidélité des forces de sécurité à la monarchie, réduisent sérieusement la probabilité d’un changement pacifique de régime.

Alors que la Tunisie et l’Égypte sont des pays relativement homogènes – leurs populations sont constituées à 90% de musulmans Sunnites – les Sunnites de Bahreïn, y compris la famille royale et les élites politiques et économiques du pays, ne représentent qu’un tiers de la population du pays, le reste étant composé de Shiites. Les demandes de chacun de ces groupes sont différentes, pour ne pas dire contradictoires.

Les Shiites se focalisent sur des réformes politiques qui seraient le reflet de leur statut majoritaire. Les Sunnites contrariés, cependant, veulent des changements socio-économiques comme des logements abordables. Et, alors que les manifestants égyptiens de tous bords se sont rassemblés pour exiger la résignation du président Hosni Moubarak, il sera très difficile pour les Bahreïniens de s’unir derrière un unique cri de ralliement.

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