Théologie défaillante et dérégulation financière

GENÈVE – Tandis que la crise financière mondiale touche à sa fin, il est temps de tirer des enseignements de nos erreurs pour nous assurer de ne pas les répéter. Au-delà de l’amélioration des mesures de régulation, de la prévention des bonus venant récompenser les prises de risque inconsidérées et la construction d’une muraille de Chine entre les émetteurs de titres et les agences de notation, il nous faut comprendre pourquoi il a été si difficile de prévoir cette crise.

D’aucuns pensent que le Fonds monétaire international, le gendarme du monde, n’y a pas réussi, car il était distrait et n’avait pas l’oil au bon endroit. Je ne suis pas d’accord. En fait, le FMI n’a pas été pas capable d’interpréter les preuves qui étaient sous son nez.

J’ai fait partie du conseil d’administration du FMI en juin 2006, lorsqu’il passait en revue le compte-rendu annuel sur l’économie aux Etats-Unis. Le FMI « avait remarqué » un relâchement des standards dans le secteur des prêts hypothécaires, mais notait que « les emprunteurs exposés au risque d’une forte hausse de leurs versements hypothécaires restaient une petite minorité, en majeure partie des foyers aux revenus les plus élevés, conscients des risques encourus. »

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