Dean Rohrer

El sesgo pro rescates

VARSOVIA  -- El debate, al parecer interminable, sobre los problemas fiscales de la zona del euro se ha centrado excesivamente en los rescates oficiales, en particular la propuesta de que el Banco Central Europeo compre bonos estatales en gran escala. De hecho, se nos advierte casi diariamente –por el Fondo Monetario Internacional y otros– que, si no se aumentan al máximo las medidas de rescate, el euro perecerá.

Para algunos, esa posición refleja los beneficios que obtendrían de esas compras; para otros, refleja creencias erróneas. Evidentemente, los acreedores apoyan el rescate de los países deudores para protegerse. Muchos dirigentes políticos acogen  también con beneplácito los préstamos oficiales para contrarrestar la crisis, que pueden aliviar la presión ejercida por los mercados sobre ellos. Entretanto, los medios de comunicación siempre aprovechan para desempeñar el papel de portadores de malas noticias.

Por otra parte, las creencias equivocadas se reflejan en metáforas como “contagio” y “efecto dominó”, que dan a entender que los mercados financieros se vuelven ciegos y virulentos y pierden la capacidad de distinguir, cuando están preocupados. Semejantes términos infunden miedo a que, una vez que se pierde la confianza en un país, todos los demás están en peligro.

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