Der Wendepunkt für die Ayatollahs

SOUTHAMPTON, ENGLAND – Als sich die Massen auf den Straßen Teherans versammelt hatten, konnte man – in Kenntnis des Ablaufs - mit dem Countdown beginnen: Wenn heute die Massenproteste beginnen, droht man morgen mit Vergeltung im Namen der „nationalen Sicherheit“. Am dritten Tag werden Journalisten verhaftet und diverse Medien gesperrt. Am vierten Tag folgen blutige Vergeltungsmaßnahmen der Geheimpolizei gegen die Demonstranten und am Tag fünf werden die wichtigsten Oppositionsführer verhaftet. Im Iran folgte man diesem Drehbuch tatsächlich innerhalb eines Zeitraums von einer Woche.  

Das Gleiche passierte 2006 in Thailand innerhalb von zehn Tagen und ein Jahr später in Myanmar, wo sich die Dinge innerhalb von sieben Tagen entwickelten. Diese Abfolge ist unter den Möchtegern-Diktatoren dieser Welt mittlerweile so bekannt, dass es weniger als eine Woche dauert, ein Land von der Außenwelt abzuschneiden.

Das sollte niemanden mehr überraschen. Vielmehr sollten wir verstehen, dass es diesen bewährten Plan zur Einsetzung oder Stärkung einer Diktatur gibt. Allerdings existiert auch eine Gegenstrategie zur Öffnung einer isolierten Gesellschaft. Wenn ein Möchtegern-Diktator – links oder rechts, irgendwo, zu irgendeiner Zeit – eine offene Gesellschaft abschotten oder gegen eine Demokratie-Bewegung hart durchgreifen möchte, folgt er zehn klassischen Schritten: eine Bedrohung heraufbeschwören, Geheimgefängnisse einrichten, paramilitärische Kräfte einsetzen, einen Überwachungsapparat installieren, willkürlich Staatsbürger verhaften, Bürgergruppen infiltrieren, wichtige Persönlichkeiten ins Visier nehmen, Journalisten verfolgen, Kritik als „Verrat“ hinstellen und den Rechtsstaat torpedieren.   

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