阿亚图拉的倒台之时

发自英格兰南安普顿——一旦人群开始聚集在德黑兰的街头,自然就会有熟知内情的人开始暗自算计:如果今天发生了大规模示威,那么明天就会冒出以“国家安全”为名的镇压威胁,第三天就有一批记者和新闻媒体遭到逮捕和查封,第四天则是秘密警察对示威群众的血腥报复,最后到了第五天,一切以几个关键反对派人物铛锒入狱告终。而在人们的预计当中,这一整套算计都将按部就班,分毫不差地发生在伊朗。

事实上,同样的步骤早就在2006年时的泰国和2007年的缅甸付诸实施——只不过是泰国用了10天而缅甸用了7天而以。而世界上那些怀抱独裁野心的人则早已把这个“一星期治国”的法则倒背如流了。

上述策略早就不能令任何人感到惊讶了。我们应该明白到这套经过历史检验的策略的确可以用来建立独裁——而同时也可以用来阻止一个封闭的社会走向开放。当一个准独裁者——无论其身处哪一国家,选择什么时机,是左派还是右派——想要封闭一个开放社会或者阻止一场民主运动,他都会遵照经典的十部曲:发出威胁—建立秘密监狱—发展准军事组织—设立监视机构—肆意逮捕公民—渗透公民组织—锁定关键人物—跟踪记者—把批评声音定义为“叛国”—推翻法治体系。

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