Paul Lachine

亚洲实力竞争

堪培拉——随着中国距离取代美国成为世界第一大经济体越来越近,其对美国在西太平洋的军事主导地位也流露出越来越明显的不满。美国及其亚太盟友对长期战略环境的焦虑与日俱增。从首尔到堪培拉,政客们无不面临着这样的噩梦前景:在亚太军事力量竞争这场零和游戏中,他们将被迫在对中国的经济依赖(将变得很大)和对美国的军事依赖(目前仍然很大)中进行选择。

没人相信近期美中关系会出现恶化,它们在信用问题上需要相互依赖,在消费问题上也具有很大的互补性。但十年甚至二十年后美中关系会走向何方已经引起了大量的分析和评论,关注焦点大多是由来已久的南海紧张局势、一再发生的东海摩擦,以及永恒的台湾问题。万一美中竞赛最终诉诸武力解决,该地区利益和阵营各不相同的国家将如何避免卷入其中?

也许我们当中没有一个国家有能力影响大局。但日本、韩国、东盟主要国家和澳大利亚还是可以共同发出一些声音——其中一部分是附和之声,但大部分是强硬回应——让中国和美国知道各自应该如何做才能更好地维系地区稳定。

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