La crise asiatique, dix ans après

Ce mois de juillet marque le dixième anniversaire de la crise financière de l’est asiatique. En juillet 1997, le bath thaïlandais s’effondrait. Peu après, la panique financière s’étendait à l’Indonésie et à la Corée, puis à la Malaisie. En un peu plus d’une année, la crise financière asiatique était devenue une crise financière mondiale, avec le crash du rouble russe et du real brésilien.

Au cœur de la crise, personne ne sait jusqu’où une économie va s’effondrer ou combien de temps cela va durer. Mais le capitalisme, depuis ses débuts, a été marqué par des crises ; à chaque fois, l’économie se remet, mais chacune porte des enseignements spécifiques. Ainsi, dix ans après la crise asiatique, il est naturel de demander : quelles en ont été les leçons ? Le monde les a-t-il apprises ? Une telle crise peut-elle se reproduire ? Une autre crise est-elle imminente ?

Il existe certaines ressemblances entre la situation d’alors et celle d’aujourd’hui : avant la crise de 1997, les flux de capitaux avaient rapidement augmenté entre les pays développés et ceux en développement – ils s’étaient multipliés par six en six ans. Après, ces flux ont stagné.

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