亚洲危机10年后的思考

今年七月是东亚金融危机爆发的十周年纪念。1997年7月,泰株大幅度贬值。不久以后,金融恐慌开始波及到印尼、韩国,而后又蔓延到马来西亚。在仅仅一年多的时间里,亚洲金融危机就发展为一场全球性的危机,导致俄罗斯卢布和巴西里亚尔一泻千里。

身处危机之中,没有人知道经济究竟会下降多少,也没有人知道下降持续的时间长度。但资本主义自从诞生之日开始,就始终与危机如影随形。虽然每次经济都得以恢复,但每次危机都有自己的教训。因此在亚洲危机发生十年后,我们很自然地要问:这场危机的教训是什么,世界各国是否汲取了这些教训?这样的危机会不会再次发生?而另一场危机是否又即将来临?

当时与现在的情况相比有一些类似之处:1997年危机之前,资本从发达国家快速地流向发展中国家,资本流量在六年之中增长了六倍。金融危机后,资本向发展中国家的流动明显放缓。

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