Dean Rohrer

Die Jungen und Ruhelosen Arabiens

NEW YORK – Viele Faktoren liegen den anhaltenden Umwälzungen im Nahen Osten zugrunde: Jahrzehnte der korrupten und autoritären Herrschaft, zunehmend gebildete und digital verbundene Gesellschaften und rasant steigende Lebensmittelpreise weltweit. Als Krönung baut das rapide Bevölkerungswachstum im gesamten Nahen Osten (genau wie im subsaharischen Afrika und einem Großteil Südasiens) einen enormen demografischen Druck auf.

Die Bevölkerung Ägyptens hat sich beispielsweise im Laufe von Husni Mubaraks Herrschaft mehr als verdoppelt: von 42 Millionen im Jahr 1980 auf 85 Millionen im Jahr 2010. Diese Zunahme ist umso bemerkenswerter, da es sich bei Ägypten um ein Wüstenland handelt, dessen Bewohner sich entlang des Nils drängen. Da es keinen Raum zur Ausdehnung gibt, steigt die Bevölkerungsdichte bis an ihre Grenze. Kairo ist zu einem wuchernden Gebiet mit etwa 20 Millionen Menschen geworden, die dicht an dicht ohne geeignete Infrastruktur zusammenleben.

Das rapide Bevölkerungswachstum bedeutet eine Zunahme der jungen Bevölkerung. So ist die Hälfte der ägyptischen Bevölkerung unter 25 Jahre alt. Genau wie Dutzende andere Länder auf der Welt steht Ägypten vor der außergewöhnlichen – und großenteils unbewältigten – Herausforderung, seinen jungen Menschen eine produktive und gewinnbringende Beschäftigung zu sichern.

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