阿拉伯之春,阿拉伯国家之春寒?

耶路撒冷——自从阿拉伯之春发生至今,中东有两件事情很突出——一件是发生的,另一件是没有发生的。发生的事情是,民众抗议——而不是以往的军事政变——打倒了专制政权和统治者,这在阿拉伯现代史上还是第一次。

但是,没有发生的事情同样重要。虽然独裁者和军政府纷纷垮台,但阿拉伯的春雷并没有震撼到该地区的保守王权。摩洛哥、约旦、沙特阿拉伯和波斯湾诸国(除了巴林)的统治王朝仍然稳据宝座,尽管如沙特阿拉伯等政权对人民的压迫,在许多方面都比被推翻的埃及和突尼斯政权来得严酷。

当然,石油金元有助于维系专制,但摩洛哥和约旦没有这一稳定因素。事态表明,这些王权政府拥有一种传统权威,是该地区的世俗民族主义统治者所没有的。传承着先知穆罕穆德血脉的摩洛哥与约旦王室、保管着圣城麦加和麦地那的沙特阿拉伯,其统治者经由这种直接的伊斯兰纽带获得了某种合法性。

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