أهو ربيع الأمم العربية حقا؟

القدس ــ منذ بدأ الربيع العربي برز أمران واضحان في الشرق الأوسط ــ أحدهما حدث بالفعل والثاني لم يحدث. أما ما حدث فهو كالتالي: للمرة الأولى في التاريخ العربي الحديث يُطاح بالأنظمة الاستبدادية والحكام الطغاة من خلال تظاهرات شعبية، وليس انقلابات عسكرية كما كان يحدث في الماضي.

ولكن ما لم يحدث قد لا يقل أهمية عما حدث بالفعل. ففي حين تحدت الشعوب الحكام المستبدين المرتبطين بطغم عسكرية بين عشية وضحاها، فإن الربيع العربي لم يتسلل قط إلى الممالك المحافظة في المنطقة. فقد ظلت الأسر الحاكمة في المغرب والأردن والمملكة العربية السعودية، ودول الخليج (باستثناء البحرين)، راسخة في مكانها، رغم أن النظام في المملكة العربية السعودية على الأقل كان في الكثير من الجوانب أكثر قمعاً من النظامين السابقين في مصر وتونس.

لا شك أن أموال النفط تساعد في دعم الحكم الاستبدادي، ولكن هذا غير وارد بالنسبة للمغرب والأردن. ويبدو أن هذه الأنظمة الملكية تتمتع بشكل ما من أشكال السلطة التقليدية لم يحظ به الحكام القوميون العلمانيون قط. ذلك أن الانتساب إلى النبي في حالة المغرب والأردن، أو الوصاية على الحرمين المقدسين في مكة والمدينة كما هي الحال في المملكة العربية السعودية، يضفي الشرعية على حكام البلاد المرتبطين بشكل مباشر بالإسلام.

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