Проверка арабской революции реальностью

БЕРЛИН – Спустя два года после народных восстаний, потрясших Ближний Восток, уже мало кто говорит об «Арабской весне». Учитывая кровавую гражданскую войну в Сирии, приход к власти исламистских сил посредством свободных выборов, экономический и политический кризисы, продолжающие углубляться в Египте и Тунисе, растущую нестабильность в Ираке, неуверенность в будущем Иордании и Ливана и угрозу войны из-за ядерной программы Ирана, светлые надежды на новый Ближний Восток испарились.

Добавляя к этому восточную и западную периферии региона – Афганистан и Северную Африку (в том числе Сахель и Южный Судан) – получаем еще более мрачную картину. В самом деле, Ливия становится все более нестабильной, Аль-Каида активно действует в Сахеле (о чем свидетельствуют боевые действия в Мали), и никто не может достоверно предположить, что произойдет в Афганистане после того, как США и их союзники по НАТО выведут оттуда свои войска в 2014 году.

Все мы склонны делать одну и ту же ошибку раз за разом: с началом революции мы предполагаем, что справедливость и свобода одержали верх над диктатурой и жестокостью. Однако история учит нас, что за этим, как правило, не следует ничего хорошего.

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