Im Treibsand der Geschichte

BERLIN – Über zwei Jahre sind es jetzt her, seitdem die große Umwälzung in der arabischen Welt begann. Von „Frühling“ spricht heute aber niemand mehr angesichts des blutigen Bürgerkriegs in Syrien, des Durchmarsches des politischen Islam bei freien Wahlen, der sich immer weiter verschärfenden Demokratie- und Wirtschaftskrise in Ägypten und Tunesien, der zunehmenden Instabilität im Irak, der Ungewissheit über die Zukunft Jordaniens und Libanons, und eines nach wie vor drohenden Krieges um das iranische Nuklearprogramm am Persischen Golf.

Zählt man dann noch die östliche und westliche Peripherie dieser weiten Region hinzu, Afghanistan und den Maghreb unter Einschluss der Sahelzone in der südlichen Sahara und des Südsudans, dann verdüstert sich das Bild noch weiter. Lybien instabil, al Qaida aktiv in der Sahelzone, wie zuletzt in Mali, und in Afghanistan schaut alle Welt mit Bangen auf den Abzug der USA und ihrer Nato-Verbündeten im Jahr 2014. Denn niemand weiß so recht, was die Folgen dieses Abzuges in den Monaten und Jahren danach sein werden.

Es ist ein immer wiederkehrender Irrtum, dass Revolutionen zu ihrem Beginn als ein Sieg von Freiheit und Gerechtigkeit missverstanden werden, da sie die alte, als ungerecht empfundene Herrschaft, ja Diktatur des alten Regimes umstürzen. Nur was kommt dann? In der Regel nichts Gutes, wie uns die Geschichte lehrt.

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