Les révolutions arabes confrontées à la réalité

BERLIN – Deux ans après le début des soulèvements populaires qui ont secoué le Moyen-Orient, rares sont ceux qui parlent encore d'un « Printemps arabe ». Pensez à la guerre civile sanglante en Syrie, à la montée en puissance des forces islamistes lors des élections libres, aux crises politiques et économique de plus en plus graves en Égypte et en Tunisie, à l'instabilité croissante en Irak, à l'incertitude quant à l'avenir de la Jordanie et du Liban et là aux menaces de guerre qui pèsent sur le programme nucléaire iranien, l'espoir immense en un nouveau Moyen-Orient a disparu.

Ajoutez la région de l'Orient et ses périphéries occidentales (l'Afghanistan et l'Afrique du Nord (y compris le Sahel et le Sud du Soudan) et le tableau s'assombrit encore. En effet, la Libye est de plus en plus instable, Al-Qaïda est activement engagé au Sahel (comme le montrent les combats au Mali) et personne ne peut prévoir ce qui va se passer en Afghanistan après le retrait des Etats-Unis et de leurs alliés de l'OTAN en 2014.

Nous avons tous tendance à refaire continuellement la même erreur : nous pensons, au début d'une révolution, que la liberté et la justice ont vaincu la dictature et la cruauté. Mais l'histoire nous enseigne que ce qui suit n'augure en général rien de bon.

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