الثورات العربية ومراجعة الحقائق

برلين ــ بعد مرور عامين منذ بدأت الانتفاضات الشعبية في زعزعة أركان الشرق الأوسط، لم يعد أحد يتحدث عن "الربيع العربي". ففي ضوء الحرب الأهلية الدامية في سوريا، وصعود القوى الإسلامية إلى السلطة عبر انتخابات حرة، والأزمة السياسية والاقتصادية المتفاقمة في مصر وتونس، وتفاقم حالة عدم الاستقرار في العراق، وعدم اليقين بشأن مستقبل الأردن ولبنان، وتهديد الحرب بسبب برنامج إيران النووي، تبخر الأمل المشرق في شرق أوسط جديد.

وبإضافة الأطراف الشرقية والغربية للمنطقة ــ أفغانستان وشمال أفريقيا (بما في ذلك منطقة الساحل وجنوب السودان) ــ فإن الصورة تصبح أكثر قتامة. فقد أصبحت ليبيا غير مستقرة على نحو متزايد، ويعمل تنظيم القاعدة في منطقة الساحل بنشاط (كما يظهر القتال في مالي)، ولا أحد يستطيع أن يتنبأ بما قد يحدث في أفغانستان بعد انسحاب الولايات المتحدة وحلفائها في منظمة حلف شمال الأطلسي في عام 2014.

الواقع أننا نميل جميعاً إلى الوقوع في نفس الخطأ مراراً وتكرارا: فنحن نتصور في بداية أي ثورة أن الغلبة لابد أن تكون للحرية والعدالة على الدكتاتورية والقسوة. ولكن التاريخ ينبئنا بأن ما يلي ليس مبهجاً عادة.

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