Das arabische Drama

PRINCETON – Die arabische Welt befindet sich gerade in der dramatischsten Periode ihrer modernen Geschichte. Repressive Regimes werden hinweg gefegt, weil die arabischen Völker ihr Schicksal endlich selbst in die Hand nehmen.

Die Aufregung des Moments sagt uns allerdings nichts darüber, was die Zukunft bereithält. Im besten Fall liegt die Demokratie noch in weiter Ferne: noch regiert das Militär in Ägypten und Tunesien, die Stämme in Libyen und im Jemen bauen ihre Machtposition aus, sektiererische Spaltungen zwischen Sunniten und Schiiten werden wahrscheinlich die Politik in Bahrain dominieren, wie seit 2003 im Irak.

Es gibt keine einheitliches Muster für all diese Ereignisse. Regimes im gesamten Nahen Osten, die Vereinigten Staaten und die europäischen Regierungen wie auch al-Qaida und andere islamistische Gruppierungen versuchen gleichermaßen, zu verstehen, was als nächstes geschieht.

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