Le drame arabe

PRINCETON – Le monde arabe est entré dans la période la plus critique de son histoire contemporaine. Les régimes despotiques sont balayés les unes après les autres par des populations qui prennent enfin leur destin en main.

Mais l’euphorie du moment ne laisse en rien présager de quoi l’avenir sera fait. Dans le meilleur des cas, la démocratie est encore loin : l’armée domine toujours la situation en Égypte et en Tunisie, les clans tribaux prennent de l’importance en Libye et au Yémen, et les clivages sectaires entre chiites et sunnites occuperont sans doute le devant de la scène au Bahreïn, comme c’est le cas en Irak depuis 2003.

Aucun fil narratif ne permet de saisir ces événements dans leur ensemble. Que ce soit les régimes du Moyen-Orient, les Etats-Unis, l’Union européenne ou Al-Qaïda et d’autres groupes islamistes, tous tentent de comprendre quelle peut être la suite des événements.

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