Die Anatomie der langsamen Erholung

BERKELEY – Zwischen 1950 und 1990 – in der Zeit der altmodischen, von der US-Notenbank Federal Reserve (Fed) zum Zweck der Inflationsbekämpfung initiierten Konjunkturrückgänge – fiel die US-Arbeitslosenrate nach einer Rezession innerhalb eines Jahres vom Ausgangs- zum Normalwert um durchschnittlich 32,4%. Hätte sich die Arbeitslosenrate nach dem Höchstwert im zweiten Halbjahr 2009 ebenso verhalten, läge sie jetzt bei  8,3% anstatt bei 8,9%.

Unglücklicherweise war der komplette Rückgang der US-Arbeitslosenrate im letzten Jahr auf die rückläufige Erwerbsquote zurückzuführen, und nichts davon auf das Verhältnis zwischen Erwerbstätigkeit und Bevölkerung. Die Arbeitslosigkeit betrug vor 18 Monaten 10,1% und ist seitdem zurückgegangen, aber das Verhältnis zwischen Erwerbstätigkeit und Bevölkerung blieb bei 58,4%. Vielleicht wäre es besser, wenn Arbeitslose, die eine Beschäftigung haben könnten – und sie bei Vollbeschäftigung auch hätten – aktiv nach Arbeit suchen würden, anstatt sich komplett aus der Erwerbstätigkeit zurückzuziehen.

So betrachtet wäre zwischen 1950 und 1990 das Verhältnis zwischen Erwerbstätigkeit und Bevölkerung in den USA für jedes Jahr, in dem sich die Arbeitslosenrate über ihrem Normalniveau befand, zusätzlich um 0,227% gestiegen. Hätte sich das Verhältnis zwischen Erwerbstätigkeit und Bevölkerung in den USA nach seinem Hochpunkt 2009 so verhalten, läge es aktuell bei 59,7% anstatt bei 58,4%. (In diesem Fall würden wir anstelle der momentanen Wirtschaftskrise einen neuen “amerikanischen Morgen” erleben.)

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