缓慢复苏剖析

伯克利——

1950—1990年间,也就是由美联储引发的老式抗通胀衰退期,美国的衰退后失业率平均会在一年时间里较初始值下降32.4%,向自然失业率靠拢。如果这次美国的失业率也照这个路径从顶峰(2009年下半年)开始下降,那么现在就应该是8.3%,而不是8.9%。

不幸的是,去年美国失业率的净下降与就业人口/总人口比的上升一点关系也没有;所有失业下降全部来自劳动力出勤率的降低。过去18个月以来,失业率从10.1%的水平降了下来,但就业人口/总人口比始终徘徊在58.4%。要是还有就业希望的失业人口(以及保全着工作的全职工作人口)在积极地寻找工作而不是彻底退出劳动力市场的话,那么情况说不定会好一些。

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