缓慢复苏剖析

伯克利——

1950—1990年间,也就是由美联储引发的老式抗通胀衰退期,美国的衰退后失业率平均会在一年时间里较初始值下降32.4%,向自然失业率靠拢。如果这次美国的失业率也照这个路径从顶峰(2009年下半年)开始下降,那么现在就应该是8.3%,而不是8.9%。

不幸的是,去年美国失业率的净下降与就业人口/总人口比的上升一点关系也没有;所有失业下降全部来自劳动力出勤率的降低。过去18个月以来,失业率从10.1%的水平降了下来,但就业人口/总人口比始终徘徊在58.4%。要是还有就业希望的失业人口(以及保全着工作的全职工作人口)在积极地寻找工作而不是彻底退出劳动力市场的话,那么情况说不定会好一些。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

To access our archive, please log in or register now and read two articles from our archive every month for free. For unlimited access to our archive, as well as to the unrivaled analysis of PS On Point, subscribe now.

required

By proceeding, you agree to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy, which describes the personal data we collect and how we use it.

Log in

http://prosyn.org/maHBFea/zh;

Cookies and Privacy

We use cookies to improve your experience on our website. To find out more, read our updated cookie policy and privacy policy.