Dluh na americký způsob

Po bezmála 15 letech bezprecedentního růstu – přerušeného jen krátkým zpomalením v�letech 2000-2001 – Spojené státy nahromadily obrovské množství zahraničních finančních závazků, rovnající se 25% jejich HDP. Vzhledem k�tomu, že schodek obchodní bilance činí 5% HDP, zahraniční dluh USA rychle roste. Žádná země však nemůže hromadit dluhy donekonečna – a co nemůže trvat, musí dříve či později skončit.

Na počátku roku 1985 schodek obchodní bilance USA dosáhl 120 miliard USD, zhruba třetiny současné úrovně při dnešních cenách, a svět jej přestal financovat. Výsledkem byl prudký pád hodnoty dolaru, jenž vůči německé marce devalvoval o 50%. Evropa by neměla mít radost z�opakování.

Skutečně, právě okolní svět si nemůže dovolit nechat schodek obchodní bilance USA rozplynout – alespoň ne rychle. Kdybychom odečetli import USA, plachý růst Evropy zaznamenaný za poslední rok by se okamžitě vytratil.

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