Margaret Scott

阿富汗的落幕幻象

斯托克霍姆—在最近对阿富汗和巴基斯坦的访问中,一件令我不得不关注的事情是国际社会越来越频繁的“结束”阿富汗的声音。但阿富汗的结束是危险的幻象:阿富汗大戏不会终结,历史也不会终结。唯一会终结的东西是世界对阿富汗的关注和参与,而这将导致灾难性后果。

国际社会纷纷将目光投向了2014年,即将国家安全责任从国际部队转交给阿富汗政府的完成期限。这一过程并非一帆风顺,但根据计划和现有时间表,没有理由认为这一过程会没完没了地进行下去,不管结果如何,都必须结束。

我认为,2014年的阿富汗将面临另一个远为关键的挑战:选举新总统。在阿富汗,多股势力——公开的或隐藏的,宪政的或传统的——都在觊觎总统宝座,总统大选很可能将成为决定阿富汗未来的大混战。

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