新兴市场失去的涅槃

圣地亚哥—20世纪70年代,耶鲁大学著名经济学家迪亚兹-亚历杭德罗(Carlos Diaz-Alejandro)指出,商品价格高企、全球利率低迷和国际流动性泛滥的组合将给发展中国家带来经济涅槃。当时,没有哪位经济学家能敏感地认识到可能形成如此有利的条件。但这一条件确实出现了,在过去十年中,大宗商品富裕国——如巴西、印尼、俄罗斯和南非——恣意地享受着资源富裕带来的好处。

但如今,涅槃似乎正在走向结束:商品价格在下跌,仅仅是美联储退出量化宽松的可能性便已使发达国家市场利率走高、使资金逃离曾经热的发烫的新兴市场,流回北方的安全港。股市和货币在崩溃,不仅大宗商品富裕国是如此,印度、土耳其等其他此前吸引了巨量外资流入的国家也是如此。悲观者已经看到了20世纪90年代末亚洲危机的重演,甚至2008—2009年发达国家危机在新兴市场的重演。

受打击最大的经济体有一个共同点:存在巨额外部赤字。过多的资本流入造成它们的货币升值,使进口品变得便宜,形成了侵蚀贸易平衡的消费(有时还有投资)繁荣,尽管商品价格的上涨同时还提高了它们的出口品的价格。如今,周期正在逆转,汇率必须贬值以助外部调整。外资预测到了这一变化——利率提高到接近国内的水平——纷纷逃离,这加速了和深化了汇率崩溃。

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