资本主义已然失效?

发自纽约——2008年9月9日,就在雷曼兄弟投资银行宣告破产的六天之前,评级机构标准普尔(Standard & Poor)依然将其投资评级维持在“A”级水平。而另一评级机构穆迪(Moody)则等待了更久,直到该投行倒闭的前一个工作日才调低其评级。为何这些著 名评级机构——以及投资银行——会做出如此错误的判断?

监管者,银行家和评级机构都应该为此次危机负上很大责任。但这场差点爆发的大崩盘更多源自于当代经济模型对金融市场所扮演的角色和作用——或者更宏观地说,资本主义经济的不稳定性——的理解错误,而不是资本主义制度本身的失效。

这些模型为众多政策决策和金融创新提供了看似科学的基础理论支持,也正是这些决策和创新大大提升了此次自大萧条以来最严重危机爆发的可能性——如果 并非不可避免的话。在雷曼兄弟垮掉之后,前美联储主席艾伦·格林斯潘(Alan Greenspan)在国会听证时说自己在“自利行为将保护社会免遭金融系统过度膨胀冲击”的理论体系中“找到了一个缺陷”,但大错却早已酿成了。

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