„Nový normál“ růstu

Cambridge – Trhy překypují náznaky „čerstvých výhonků“ v globálním hospodářství. Narůstající počet investorů vidí přicházet silný odraz ode dna, nejprve v Číně, pak ve Spojených státech a poté v Evropě a ve zbytku světa. Od tohoto optimistického uvažování je podle všeho neodrazují ani příšerné výsledky posledních několika kvartálů. Čím hlouběji se ponoříme, tím silněji se odrazíme, říkají někteří analytici.

Možná že tito optimisté mají pravdu. Jak silnou expanzi ale můžeme soudně očekávat, až bude to nejhorší za námi? Bude tento „nový normál“ stejný, jako byl „starý normál“ konjunkturního období v letech 2002 až 2007?

Jen obtížně si dokážu představit, jak by se USA a Čína, hlavní motory globálního růstu posledních dvou desetiletí, mohly vyhnout ustálení na výrazně nižším průměrném tempu růstu, než z jakého se těšily před krizí.

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