Markets are bubbling over signs of “green shoots” in the global economy, with an increasing number of investors seeing a strong rebound coming, first in China, then in the US, and then in Europe and the rest of the world. But, even after the current crisis ends, global growth is almost certain to remain lower than the pre-crisis boom years for some time to come.
Cambridge – Markets are bubbling over signs of “green shoots” in the global economy. An increasing number of investors see a strong rebound coming, first in China, then in the United States, and then in Europe and the rest of the world. Even the horrible growth numbers of the last couple quarters don’t seem to discourage this optimistic thinking. The deeper the plunge, the stronger the rebound, some analysts say.
Perhaps these optimists are right. But how strong an expansion can one reasonably expect when the worst is finally over? Is the “new normal” going to be the same as the “old normal” of the boom years from 2002 to 2007?
I have trouble seeing how the US and China, the main engines of global growth for two decades, can avoid settling on a notably lower average growth rate than they enjoyed before the crisis.
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Neither the invasion of Ukraine nor the deepening cold war between the West and China came out of the blue. The world has been increasingly engaged over the past half-decade, or longer, in a struggle between two diametrically opposed systems of governance: open society and closed society.
frames the war in Ukraine as the latest battle for open-society ideals – one that implicates China as well.
Shlomo Ben-Ami
highlights the lessons countries like China and Iran are drawing from Vladimir Putin’s aggression, offers advice to Ukrainian peace negotiators, and considers the wisdom of Finland and Sweden's NATO membership.
Calls for a decisive Ukrainian victory have been growing as Russia’s military incompetence continues to be exposed. But with the world teetering on the edge of recession and the developing world facing a spiral of hunger and forced migration, it would be a grave error to dismiss those calling for a negotiated peace.
urges those not directly involved in the war to help the combatants envisage the terms of a negotiated peace.
Cambridge – Markets are bubbling over signs of “green shoots” in the global economy. An increasing number of investors see a strong rebound coming, first in China, then in the United States, and then in Europe and the rest of the world. Even the horrible growth numbers of the last couple quarters don’t seem to discourage this optimistic thinking. The deeper the plunge, the stronger the rebound, some analysts say.
Perhaps these optimists are right. But how strong an expansion can one reasonably expect when the worst is finally over? Is the “new normal” going to be the same as the “old normal” of the boom years from 2002 to 2007?
I have trouble seeing how the US and China, the main engines of global growth for two decades, can avoid settling on a notably lower average growth rate than they enjoyed before the crisis.
To continue reading, register now.
As a registered user, you can enjoy more PS content every month – for free.
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