La "nueva" insurgencia iraquí

Sun Tzu, el gran filósofo chino de la guerra escribió que "Si conoces al enemigo y te conoces a tí mismo, no debes temer el resultado de cien batallas". La ausencia de ese conocimiento trae problemas y a menudo lleva al desastre. Este es sin duda el caso del conflicto en Iraq, donde entender a los insurgentes es tanto crucial como difícil.

En cierta medida, la insurgencia iraquí refleja a sus predecesores históricos. El conflicto es un "teatro armado" en el que los antagonistas luchan y al mismo tiempo envían mensajes a un público más amplio, en particular al pueblo de Iraq. Al igual que con todas las insurgencias, el apoyo del público --o la falta de él-- determinará el resultado.

Además, es probable que sea una función larga. La historia indica que una vez que una insurgencia llega a la "masa crítica", se necesitan diez años o más para erradicarla. Y como en el caso de insurgencias anteriores, el conflicto de Iraq es uno en el que los insurgentes utilizan actos terribles para intimidar al público, exponer los defectos del gobierno y provocar al régimen a que reaccione con excesos que puedan poner al público en su contra.

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