Der “neue” Aufstand im Irak

Der große chinesische Kriegsphilosoph Sun Tzu schrieb einst: “Wer seine Feinde kennt und sich selbst, muss auch hundert Schlachten nicht fürchten.” Das Fehlen dieser Kenntnis beschwört Unglück, häufig eine Katastrophe herauf. Auf den anhaltenden Konflikt im Irak, bei dem das Verständnis der Aufständischen zugleich ausschlaggebend und schwierig ist, trifft das sicher zu.

Zu einem gewissen Grad reflektiert der Aufstand im Irak seine historischen Vorläufer. Der Kampf ist “bewaffnetes Theater”, bei dem sich die Antagonisten kämpfend umklammert halten und der zuschauenden Öffentlichkeit gleichzeitig Botschaften übermitteln, insbesondere dem irakischen Volk. Wie bei allen Aufständen wird die Unterstützung der Öffentlichkeit – oder der Mangel daran – über das Ergebnis entscheiden.

Darüber hinaus wird es vermutlich ein langwieriges Schauspiel sein. Die Vergangenheit deutet darauf hin, dass es ein Jahrzehnt oder länger dauern wird, einen Aufstand gänzlich zu beenden, wenn er einmal “kritische Masse” erreicht. Und, wie bei Unruhen in der Vergangenheit, nutzen die Aufständischen im Irakkonflikt grauenvolle Taten, um die Öffentlichkeit einzuschüchtern, die Versäumnisse der Regierung bloßzulegen und das System zu Überreaktionen anzustacheln, die die Öffentlichkeit bewegen könnten, sich gegen es zu wenden.

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