La « Nouvelle » insurrection irakienne

Sun Tsu, le grand philosophe chinois de la guerre, écrivit un jour : « Si tu connais ton ennemi et si tu te connais toi-même, tu ne dois pas craindre le résultat de centaines de batailles ». L’absence d’une telle connaissance entraîne des problèmes et souvent des désastres. Cela s’applique très certainement au conflit que connaît aujourd’hui l’Irak, où il est essentiel et difficile d’arriver à comprendre les insurgés.

La sédition irakienne reflète, jusqu’à un certain point, le caractère de ses prédécesseurs historiques. Le conflit est un « théâtre armé » où les protagonistes sont enfermés dans une lutte menée les uns contre les autres et d’où ils envoient des messages à un public plus large, et tout particulièrement au peuple irakien. Comme toute sédition, son sort sera déterminé par le soutien que lui apportera ou pas le peuple.

De plus, il est fort probable que cela deviendra une performance qui se prolongera. L’histoire nous montre qu’une fois que la sédition atteint sa « masse critique », il faut dix ans ou plus pour l’éradiquer. Et, comme pour les insurrections précédentes, le conflit irakien est un conflit où les insurgés utilisent des actes horribles pour intimider le public, exposer les faiblesses du gouvernement, et pousser le gouvernement à des réactions exagérées qui pourraient lui valoir le retrait du soutien du public.

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